Midyear Outlook 2019: What Really Matters in the Markets

At the halfway point of 2019, the U.S. economy has held steady, supported by the fiscal stimulus we have highlighted for two years, and corporate profits continue to grow. At the same time, trade tensions are increasingly weighing on the economic outlook, while...

Setting The Stage | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 17, 2019

KEY TAKEAWAYS The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next policy decision June 19. We think a language change is more likely than a policy change at this meeting. Economic fundamentals are still sound, but the Fed must address plans to mitigate trade risk....

A Record-Long Expansion | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 10, 2019

KEY TAKEAWAYS This economic expansion is now one of the longest on record. Trade tensions have threatened growth, but economic data still appear sound. If the trade dispute continues, the Fed could be forced to intervene. Click here to download a PDF of this report....

The Baffling Bond Market | Weekly Economic Commentary | June 3, 2019

KEY TAKEAWAYS The 10-year Treasury yield has declined at a rapid pace. Economic fundamentals still look sound, even as yields send cautious signals. Investors around the world have rushed into Treasuries for income, safety, and liquidity. Click here to download a PDF...