Global Portfolio Strategy | March 9, 2021

Our year-end S&P 500 Index fair value target range remains 4,050–4,100, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 21 and our 2022 S&P 500 earnings forecast of $195 per share. Recall that we raised our S&P 500 fair value target last month due to our...

Global Portfolio Strategy | February 9, 2021

We have raised our year-end S&P 500 Index fair value target range to 4,050–4,100 from 3,850–3,900 due to our increasingly optimistic expectations for US economic growth and corporate profits. Prospects for additional fiscal stimulus, recent progress in reducing...

Global Portfolio Strategy | January 12, 2021

We see an S&P 500 Index fair value target range of 3,850–3,900 at year-end 2021 with potential for upside if there’s better-than-expected progress on vaccine distribution. A strong earnings rebound may enable stocks to grow into somewhat elevated valuations. Our...

Global Portfolio Strategy | November 10, 2020

Stocks fell for the second straight month in October as Election Day approached and brought policy uncertainty that historically has driven volatility. While the election dominated the headlines, rising COVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States and the stimulus...

Global Portfolio Strategy | September 11, 2020

Stocks continued their positive momentum with strong gains in August, sending the S&P 500 Index to new record highs before volatility returned in early September. The economic recovery remained on track even as the threat of COVID-19 lingers, while massive...

Global Portfolio Strategy | August 11, 2020

Stocks continued to rally in July despite elevated COVID-19 cases in many US states and globally, as well as evidence that the economic recovery was leveling off based on high-frequency economic data. Low interest rates amid ongoing massive stimulus and optimism...